Quantifying the changes in the runoff and its components across the Upper Indus River Basin under climate change

Abstract The runoff from the Upper Indus River Basin (UIB) is considered vital for sustainable water supply and agriculture. Climate change may alter affect availability of water. This study employs a hydrologic model climate projections fine-resolution Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) (0.1875°) to assess impacts in future (2075–2099) on flows UIB its sub-basins. simulations have shown satisfactory results compared observed ones. Furthermore, simulated snow-cover was with estimated by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). According results, meltwater glaciers contributes about two-thirds annual UIB. projections, temperature will increase 5.3 °C precipitation 17% across Despite this increase, river were projected decrease 14% because depleted glacier melt. detailed responses selected sub-basins showed different patterns depending elevation. In an eastern sub-basin, 58% enhanced melt higher precipitation. Contrarily, two western experience reduction flow 30–70% retreat.